Market Roundup
• Canada Housing Starts (Oct) 232.8K, 265.0K forecast, 279.2K previous
•US ADP Employment Change Weekly -2.50K, -11.25K previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 6.1%, 5.9% previous
•US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Aug) 1.9%,1.9% previous
•US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Aug) 0.3% 0.4%previous
•US Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) 1.4%, 1.4% forecast,-1.3%previous
•US Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) (Aug) 0.1%,0.5%previous
•US NAHB Housing Market Index (Nov) 38, 37 forecast,37 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:30 Australia Wage Price Index (YoY) (Q3) 3.4% forecast,3.4% previous
•00:30 Australia Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) 0.8%, 0.8% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower against the dollar on Tuesday as investors awaited economic data due later in the week for health of U.S. economy. A backlog of U.S. economic data, delayed by the federal government shutdown, is due for release this week, including Thursday’s key September nonfarm payrolls report.Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Tuesday he hopes the coming data and ongoing community interviews will help clarify where the economy is heading.Money markets are pricing in the chance of a 25-bp rate cut next month at around 51%, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool, down from around 60% last week.The euro was down 0.07% at $1.1584. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1630(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.16478(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1575(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1491(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling was largely unchanged against the dollar on Tuesday as investors awaited Wednesday’s UK inflation report, which could offer fresh insights into the Bank of England’s policy direction. While markets recognize that it will take time for the U.S. economic outlook to become clear due to a backlog of pending data, the upcoming UK inflation figures are expected to play a key role in shaping expectations for future BoE rate cuts.Many central banks have largely completed their normalisation cycles, but traders expect the BoE to cut rates by 59 basis points by December 2026, compared with 54 bps late on Monday, while pricing in an 80% chance of a rate cut next month.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3158(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3178(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2975(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to a near three-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as some major domestic political uncertainty cleared. The Canadian Parliament on Monday narrowly voted in favor of Prime Minister Mark Carney's first budget, staving off the threat of a second election in less than a year. Canada is a major producer of commodities, including oil, so the loonie tends to be sensitive to the signal that stocks send about the economic outlook.U.S. crude oil futures were trading 1.4% higher at $60.73 a barrel as traders weighed the impact of Western sanctions on Russian oil flows against an expected supply surplus next year.Domestic data had little impact. It showed that housing starts fell 17% in October from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 232,765 units.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4021(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4053(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3977(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3928 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar held modest gains against the yen on Tuesday after touching a fresh 9½-month high, as investors weighed concerns over Japan’s fiscal stance and awaited U.S. data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next move. Cleveland Fed data showed 39,000 Americans received advance notice of layoffs last month, while ADP reported U.S. private employers cut an average of 2,500 jobs per week over the four weeks ending November 1. The figures underscore lingering worries about a slowing U.S. economy and diminishing expectations for near-term interest-rate cuts.Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has flagged the possibility of raising rates as soon as next month. However, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed opposition to tighter policy, urging the BoJ to support government efforts to reflate the economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.89(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.33 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 153.44 (38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares declined on Tuesday, with German equities approaching a five-month low, as a broad risk-off mood swept global markets.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 1.27 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.77 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.86 percent.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 posting a fourth consecutive session of losses. Big tech shares were weighed down by valuation concerns, while a disappointing forecast dragged down Home Depot.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.07% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.82% percent, Nasdaq settled downby 1.21% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose from a one-week low on Tuesday, buoyed by softer-than-expected U.S. employment data, as investors weighed the chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December ahead of more delayed U.S. economic releases this week.
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $4,068.05 per ounce after hitting its lowest since November 10 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.2% to $4,068.40 per ounce.
Oil prices ended higher on Tuesday after a volatile session, as traders weighed the impact of Western sanctions on Russian oil flows and news that U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has begun interviewing candidates for the next Federal Reserve chair.
Brent crude settled up 69 cents, or 1.07%, at $64.89 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 83 cents, or 1.39%, to $60.74.
