Market Roundup
• French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.065% , 2.059% previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.030%, 2.010% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.044%, 2.029% previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.780%, 3.815% forecast, previous
• US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.690% ,3.700% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:30 Australia NAB Business Confidence (Oct) 7 previous
•00:30 Australia NAB Business Survey (Oct) 8 previous
•02:00 New Zealand Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 2.3% previous
•03:35 Japan 30-Years JGB Auction 3.248% previous
•05:00 Japan Economy Watchers Current Index (Oct) 47.6 forecast, 47.1 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No significant events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Monday as euro was lifted by optimism that an end to a historic U.S. government shutdown was in sight. The U.S. Senate advanced a measure to reopen the government after a 40-day closure that has left federal workers unpaid, disrupted food aid, and snarled air travel. Lawmakers plan to amend a House-passed bill to fund operations through January 30 and include three full-year appropriations. The prolonged shutdown has increasingly weighed on the U.S. economy and left the Federal Reserve with limited economic data. On the data front, The Sentix index gauging investor morale in the euro zone fell to -7.4 in November from -5.4 in October, below the -4.0 forecast by analysts.The survey of 1,069 investors from November 6-8 showed the assessment of the current situation deteriorated to -17.5 in November from -16.0 in October, Sentix said on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1560(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1614(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1475(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1462(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against the dollar on Monday as optimism grew that an end to the historic U.S. government shutdown could be near. Global sentiment improved after the U.S. Senate on Sunday advanced a measure aimed at reopening the federal government and funding it through January, ending a shutdown that has sidelined federal workers, delayed food aid and snarled air travel. The 40-day shutdown has weighed heavily on the U.S. economy, leaving federal employees unpaid and restricting key data releases, forcing the Federal Reserve to operate with limited information. Traders are also looking ahead to late November's UK budget. Analysts expect that finance minister Rachel Reeves will raise taxes, though the precise changes remain to be seen, amid broad speculation in British media .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3178(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3262(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar hit a 10-day high against the U.S. dollar on Monday, boosted by improved risk appetite and upbeat data from last week’s federal budget and strong jobs figures. October saw Canada’s economy add significantly more jobs than expected for a second month in a row, while the unemployment rate fell, according to Friday’s report. Investors now anticipate the Bank of Canada will hold rates next month after October’s cut to a three-year low of 2.25%, with around 11 basis points of additional easing priced in by June.The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.4030 per U.S. dollar, after touching its strongest intraday level since October 31 at 1.4002.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4058(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4128(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4009(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3932(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar inched higher on Monday as reports suggested Japan’s new government may pursue a more flexible fiscal policy. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Monday said she would work on setting a new fiscal target extending through several years to allow more flexible spending, essentially watering down the country's commitment to fiscal consolidation. Separately, the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions on Monday also said that the "fog surrounding Japan's economic outlook has begun to clear compared with July," potentially paving the way for a rate hike in December, which would help support the currency. The dollar was up 0.3% at against the yen at 154.17 yen, back threatening the nine-month highs it reached earlier in the month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.90 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.98 (SMA20).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Monday, tracking global optimism as investors welcomed early signs of an end to the U.S. government shutdown, while Diageo climbed after appointing a new CEO.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.08 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.65 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1. 32 percent.
Wall Street surged on Monday, boosted by strong gains in Nvidia, Palantir, and other major AI-related stocks, following progress in Washington toward ending the record government shutdown.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.81 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 1.54 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 2.27 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold surged nearly 3% on Monday to a two-week high, as weak U.S. economic data fueled expectations of a Fed rate cut, boosting demand for the non-yielding metal.
Spot gold climbed 2.8% to $4,111.39 per ounce as of 2:21 p.m. ET (1921 GMT) after hitting its highest level since October 24 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 2.8% to settle at $4,122.00 per ounce.
Oil prices rose on Monday as concerns over U.S. sanctions and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries supported the market, though expectations of a crude surplus limited gains.
Brent crude futures rose 43 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $64.06 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced 38 cents, or 0.6%, to close at $60.13 a barrel.
