Market Roundup
• US CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.7%, 3.1% forecast, 3.0% previous
• US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) -10.2, 2.5 forecast, -1.7 previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 224K, 224K forecast, 237K previous
• US Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.6%, 3.0% forecast, 3.0% previous
• US Philly Fed Employment (Dec) 12.9, 6.0 previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,897K, 1,930K forecast, 1,830K previous
• US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Dec) 41.6, 49.6 previous
• US Philly Fed New Orders (Dec) 5.0, -8.6 previous
• US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Dec) 43.60, 56.10 previous
• US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Dec) 30.30, 26.70 previous
• US Core CPI Index (Nov) 331.07, 330.54 previous
• US CPI Index, n.s.a. (Nov) 324.12, 325.13 forecast, 324.80 previous
•Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Oct) 2.18%, 2.93% previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 217.50K, 217.00K previous
• US CPI Index, s.a (Nov) 325.03, 324.37 previous
• US Natural Gas Storage -167B, -176B forecast, -177B previous
• US KC Fed Composite Index (Dec) 1, 8 previous
• US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) -3, 18 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•02:00 New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) (Nov)1.4% previous
•02:00 Credit Card Spending (YoY) 1.4% previous
•03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.75% forecast, 0.50% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 02:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro weakened against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged while revising its economic forecasts. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that policymakers would keep all options on the table, signaling that monetary policy could still be adjusted on a meeting-by-meeting basis.Lagarde described the ECB as being “in a good place” but stressed that the current policy stance is not static, reiterating that there is no predetermined path for borrowing costs. The bank maintained its projection that inflation will fall below its 2% target in 2026 and 2027 due to lower energy prices, before gradually returning to target in 2028. However, it cautioned that services inflation may ease more slowly, reflecting ongoing wage pressures. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1788(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1823(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1712(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1649(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling initially gained against the dollar on Thursday but later gave up some ground after the Bank of England (BoE) cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%. The decision came after a narrowly split 5–4 vote by the Monetary Policy Committee, with no members supporting a larger 50-basis-point cut.This marked the sixth rate reduction since August 2024, bringing Bank Rate to its lowest level in nearly three years, though it remains almost double the European Central Bank’s rate, which was kept on hold on Thursday. The BoE signalled that the already cautious pace of policy easing could slow further, reflecting lingering concerns over inflation, which remains the highest among Group of Seven economies.The four dissenting members preferred no change, highlighting the risk that inflation could persist at elevated levels despite the cut. Markets interpreted the move as relatively hawkish, suggesting the central bank is taking a measured approach to monetary easing rather than aggressive rate reductions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3428(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3480(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3345(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3304(SMA 20).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened modestly against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, though gains were limited ahead of key domestic data. Investors awaited Canada’s October retail sales, due Friday, which are expected to show a flat reading compared with September.The move in the currency also followed comments from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who downplayed the likelihood of sector-specific trade deals with the U.S., noting that such issues would likely be addressed in a broader review of the United States-Canada-Mexico trade agreement (USMCA) expected next year.Canada’s most recent GDP data for the third quarter showed an annualized gain of 2.6%, though growth was largely driven by a decline in imports, with household consumption remaining disappointing. Meanwhile, oil prices, a key export for Canada, rose 0.9% to $56.43 per barrel as investors weighed the potential for further U.S. sanctions on Russia and supply risks from a Venezuelan oil tanker blockade. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3815(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3867 (Dec 10th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3722(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3670(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially dipped but recovered ground against the Japanese yen on Thursday after data showed a smaller-than-expected rise in U.S. inflation. According to Labor Department figures, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-on-year in November, below economists’ forecast of 3.1%. Data collection for the report had been affected by the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history.Investors note that the Federal Reserve tracks the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index as its primary gauge for its 2% inflation target, which means CPI movements provide important but indirect guidance on policy expectations.Meanwhile, political signals added to the dovish sentiment. President Donald Trump stated that the next Fed chair would be someone who supports significantly lower interest rates. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.82(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.02(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.44 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 154.54 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose broadly on Thursday as weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation boosted hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, while the European Central Bank’s steady-rate stance and upbeat economic outlook supported market sentiment.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.65 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.00 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.80 percent.
Wall Street’s major indexes ended higher on Thursday, driven by a softer-than-expected inflation report that raised hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts, alongside Micron’s strong earnings forecast reflecting robust AI demand.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.14% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.76% percent, Nasdaq settled upby 1.38% percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices settled up for a second day as investors assessed the likelihood of further U.S. sanctions against Russia and the supply risks posed by a blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers.
U.S. crude settled up 0.38%, or 21 cents, at $56.15 a barrel and Brent settled at $59.82 per barrel, up 0.23%, or14 cents, on the day.
Gold prices edged down even after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data bolstered expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $ 4,332.23 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.27% to $ 4,335.80 an ounce.
