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Australia’s ASX 200 surged over 1% on Friday to an all-time high of 8,745.20 points, driven by rising expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates further. The rally was broad-based, with strong gains in heavyweight banking and mining stocks.
Investor sentiment was boosted by Thursday’s weak labor report, which showed Australia’s job market stagnating for a second consecutive month. Unemployment unexpectedly climbed to a near four-year high, fueling speculation that the RBA may move to ease monetary policy sooner than expected.
Despite keeping rates unchanged at 3.85% during its last meeting, the RBA had already cut rates by 50 basis points earlier this year. The central bank cited uncertainty over U.S. trade tariffs and inflation trends, opting to wait for more economic clarity.
However, analysts now believe that the RBA’s pause could have been premature. ANZ forecast a 25-basis-point cut as early as August, citing the “soft” June jobs report. Capital Economics also described the labor data as disappointing and suggested deeper cuts could follow.
“The sharp rise in unemployment in June makes the RBA’s decision to leave rates on hold earlier this month look like a policy error,” Capital Economics wrote, adding that incoming data could prompt more aggressive easing than currently anticipated.
The ASX 200’s gains also tracked strong performances in global markets, with Wall Street hitting record highs this week.
With falling inflation and weakening employment, markets are now betting that the RBA will be forced to act, potentially supporting further gains in Australian equities. Investors will be closely watching upcoming economic indicators and RBA signals for confirmation of this dovish pivot.
