Populism clouds the European outlook
Mar 18, 2015 09:41 am UTC| Commentary
The euro area is at present enjoying the tailwinds of low oil prices, an accommodative monetary policy and a weaker currency.In addition, there is no longer in aggregate any drag from fiscal policy and a greater share of...
China hard landing risks remain
Mar 18, 2015 09:39 am UTC| Commentary
Several individual economies appear at risk (and notably Russia and Brazil), but the risk that a strong dollartriggers a systemic crisis as modest with a probability of 10%.Societe Generale notes... On China, we have...
Emerging economies at crossroads of tighter dollar liquidity
Mar 18, 2015 09:37 am UTC| Commentary
Emerging markets were the principal victim of the 2013 taper-tantrum and concern is that once actual fed rate hikes commence, new stress could appear.Particularly vulnerable are those economies with significant leverage...
Heavy lifting at the Fed, further easing at the ECB
Mar 18, 2015 09:34 am UTC| Commentary
Societe Generale notes... In the US, we look for a June lift-off followed by an additional 25bp hike in Q4 and then further tightening, taking the fed funds rate to a 3.75% by H2 2018. The huge balance sheet, we...
Mar 18, 2015 08:42 am UTC| Commentary
Unicredti notes its views on CEE Eurobond issuance as follows: A host of Eurobond issuance is coming in CEE, particularly in EUR-denominated paper. Yields have tightened to historic lows in most paper across the region...
Sterling Outlook: Societe Generale
Mar 18, 2015 08:37 am UTC| Commentary
Societe Generale notes... GBP/USD has fallen by nearly five big figures since the March MPC meeting. Our expectation is for a dovish set of minutes today with a unanimous vote in favour of leaving rates unchanged,...
Two reasons why the FOMC may not raise rates in June
Mar 18, 2015 07:53 am UTC| Commentary
Deflation - The economy will continue to be in deflation for most of the year and this means that the development of core inflation and inflation expectations will be key in convincing the FOMC that inflation will return...
South Africa’s plan to move away from coal: 8 steps to make it succeed
Germany lowers voting age to 16 for the European elections
IceCube researchers detect a rare type of energetic neutrino sent from powerful astronomical objects