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Indian Rupee has clearly lost its charm after China's devaluation of Yuan clouded the fundamentals of the country as trade balance with China is expected to deteriorate, moreover hard landing of China's economy is likely to hit India hard.
- On the other hand, due to large expansionary monetary stimulus and its expansion by bank of Japan, along with optimism of new pro-reform government in India has strengthened Rupee against Yen close to 28% since 2014.
- With no further monetary policy expansion likely from Bank of Japan (BOJ) and Indian government struggling to improve exports and pursue much awaited reform (as they lack majority in upper house) Yen is likely to have formed a key interim bottom against INR.
Trade idea:
- Since last December, Rupee bulls have failed to clear key support around 0.507-0.51 area, Bulls had intensified assault since June as INR performed very well against almost all emerging market counterparts as well as some developed market peers but ultimately failing to clear the level.
- Though Yen is currently in range with INR and Dollar too, possibility of further consolidation remains high, however with key bottom formation we are preferring to even range trade with upward bias with an eye for break out.
Yen is currently trading at 0.536 against INR. Range floor stands at 0.507-0.51 and resistance lies at 0.528 (broken this week), 0.54 and 0.55.
