ECB Signals Possible Interest Rate Move if Inflation Outlook Fails to Improve 
Dollar Gains as Fed Rate Hike Bets Rise Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit 
OECD Sees Bank of Japan Raising Interest Rates to 2% by 2027 
South Korea Central Bank Signals Cautious Policy Amid Inflation and Middle East Tensions 
New Zealand Budget 2026 Focuses on Fiscal Discipline and Infrastructure Investment 
ECB Rate Outlook: Ceasefire Eases Pressure but Hikes Still Expected in 2026 
Trump Pushes China Market Access During High-Stakes Xi Summit 
Japan Inflation Expectations Rise as BOJ Rate Hike Timing Faces Uncertainty 
Fed’s Goolsbee Warns Inflation Remains Elevated, Signals Caution on Rate Cuts 
Dollar Surges as Inflation Data Fuels Fed Rate Hike Expectations 
US-China Trade Talks Begin in South Korea Ahead of Trump-Xi Beijing Summit 
U.S. economy may be continuing its growth and remains still a bit far away from recession, but sections of the economy remain well into contraction. Many of the indicators like real gross domestic Private investments are pointing towards looming recessionary possibilities. Another such is Total Business Sales, released from U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Since January 2015, the year on year growth rate in Total Business Sales has remained in the negative, which means it is in the negative for 18 months, which would be six quarters. Last time the business sales growth was negative dates back to the great recession of 2008/09 when the contraction lasted for 13 months but the contraction was much steeper than the current. Before that, the growth was negative in 2001, which was followed by recession and the contraction in business sales lasted for 12-13 months.
Some of the Fed officials like Jerome Powell is worried on secular stagnation. Maybe he is right in doing so.
