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After massive 10 week decline oil has posed overwhelming comeback in the last two days of the previous week, where price jumped as much as much as 18%.
Though most of the Bull Run can be attributed to short covering, we expect further covering of shorts given extreme sentiment and position.
We are turning bullish on oil slowly
- Rout in oil price, shelved many projects across world, with estimates in investment hold up ranging in billions to trillions. With such massive hold up in investments hold up, we expect demand to surpass excess capacity in the world.
- In spite of higher production, OPEC doesn't have much spare capacity, without significant investments, though Iran might extend its current production rate it won't be sufficient to surpass demand. Investments are not likely to return, unless there are certainty and confidence over higher oil price.
- Russia, world's largest producer is already operating close to its full capacity, and Russia at current stage in no position to invest in additional capacity, given low oil price.
- US producers have significant spare capacity and so far behave like swing producers, however with gloomy outlook the production in US unlikely to rise at rapid pace.
- Lower oil price has pushed back, alternate energy plans especially across developing world.
The philosophy - a bull market takes birth, when participants are most bearish, has worked well in the past and we believe there is still possibility of a bull market in oil going ahead.
When and what price
- There may be still some time before we see real reversal in oil price. Future scarcity is likely to improve the oil contango as well as oil spot going ahead.
