RUB was able to recover very notably due to strong rise in the oil price. The central bank's (CBR) decision not to support the FX market for the time being has turned out to be correct for the time being. The FX reserves were maintained and according to yesterday's data they even increased. The central bankers are likely to be pleased with the result of the Bloomberg poll.
According to Bloomberg poll the majority of the analysts expect that the CBR will only sell USD at an exchange rate of 80 in USD-RUB, notes Commerzbank. Of course that means that there is still scope for renewed (further) RUB weakness. However, it may also create a pain threshold on the market which the market participants do not dare approach. On the other hand, that is unlikely to be a permanent solution against depreciation. Usually the central banks end up the losers if they try to oppose the weakness of their own currency, says Commerzbank. That in turn invites speculative market participants to bet against the currency in question.
