Weak demand may have weighed on China's trade growth

China's customs department will release March trade data on 13 April. 

According to Standard Chartered, the export growth is expected to have slowed to 8.8% y/y in March from 48.3% in February, when last year's low base provided a boost. External demand likely remained lacklustre, as reflected in the weak reading for the export orders sub-index of the manufacturing PMI. 

The strength of the Chinese yuan's (CNY's) trade-weighted index probably also weighed on export growth. Imports likely to have contracted by 10.7% y/y in March, less than February's 20.5% decline but still weak due to sluggish domestic demand, a decline in commodity financing, and low global commodity prices. 

"We estimate that the trade surplus narrowed to USD 40bn in March from USD 60.6bn in February", says Standard Chartered.