Vietnam Posts Rare Trade Deficit Amid Import Surge, U.S. Surplus Grows

Vietnam recorded a rare monthly trade deficit of $1.55 billion in February as imports surged, according to government data. This follows a $3.02 billion surplus in January, marking only the third deficit since early 2023. The country, a key manufacturing hub, remains vulnerable to global trade tensions, particularly potential U.S. tariffs.

Exports in February rose 25.7% year-over-year, but imports jumped 40%, driven by higher purchases of dairy products, automobiles, and metal goods. Over the January-February period, Vietnam maintained a trade surplus of $1.47 billion. When combined, data for these months smooths out Lunar New Year-related fluctuations.

Vietnam’s trade surplus with the U.S. grew 16.3% year-over-year to $17 billion, while its deficit with China expanded by 36.9% to $15.4 billion. The U.S. remains Vietnam’s largest export market, while China is its main import source. Concerns persist that Vietnam may face reciprocal U.S. tariffs due to allegations of serving as a transshipment hub for Chinese goods.

Industrial production surged 17.2% in February after a slow 0.6% rise in January. Retail sales increased by 9.4% during the month. Meanwhile, foreign investment inflows reached $3 billion in the first two months of 2025, up 5.4% year-over-year. Investment pledges rose significantly by 35.5% to $6.9 billion, signaling continued confidence in Vietnam’s economy.

As global trade uncertainties grow, Vietnam faces challenges in sustaining its export-driven growth while managing its widening trade deficit with China.