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USD/RUB likely to trade around 61 by end-2018 – Lloyds Bank

In October, the USD/RUB pair has been higher in spite of the increase in crude oil prices. Historically, a main driver of exchange rate, crude oil is expected to remain overshadowed by other influences, noted Lloyds Bank in a research report. For example, increased geopolitical risk leaves the pair susceptible at times of financial market stress.

Recent fresh set of U.S. sanctions gives more reasons for investors to be wary regarding Russian assets. Meanwhile, the finance ministry of Russia, which intervenes to push the pair higher, advances from a combination of increased oil prices and subdued exchange rate. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Russia is expected to continue with its easing cycle as the nation’s headline inflation continues to fall.

“Lower interest rates will make the ruble less attractive from a carry perspective even if crude oil prices continue their ascent. We forecast USD/RUB at 61.0 at end-2018”, added Lloyds Bank.

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