US' unadjusted CPI-U likely slipped in September

Before seasonal adjustment US CPI-U fell by 0.2% to 237.767 last month, the lowest reading since April. Looking ahead, underlying consumer prices for goods and services generally soften during the fall quarter. 

"The updated estimates call for a 0.3% rise to 235.476 over calendar 2015, down from last month's 0.5% forecast, and a slightly larger 2.4% increase (was 2.3%) to 241.191 next year", says Societe Generale. 

As a result, traders and investors should be prepared for significantly lower percentage changes in the unadjusted CPI-U than those of the seasonally adjusted headline gauge. Recent adjustments to the petroleum analysts' price projections have prompted to update the CPI-U forecasts through 2016. 

"The CPI excluding food and energy components, meanwhile, is now expected to end the year 2.1% above its December 2014 level and climb by an additional 2.7% over the course of 2016", added Societe Generale.