US real business activity likely to show positive sign in Q2

US real GDP and real consumption spending data for Q2 is scheduled to release on 30th July. The two macroeconomic indicators posted -0.2% and 2.1% growth respectively  in Q1.  
Societe Generale estimates, the real GDP growth is likely to post 3.3% growth and real consumption spending to post 2.8% in Q2. Therefore, the bank expects the real business activity probably rebounded sharply in Q2, after a weather-related contraction during the winter. 

"Moreover, anticipated snapbacks in business fixed investment and government outlays, combined with a significantly smaller drag on growth from the external sector, likely fueled a 3.3% annualized rise in real GDP, following a 0.2% prior-period dip. The GDP chain-weighted price index likely increased by 1.9%, while the annualized growth of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) core consumer inflation measure doubled to 1.6%, estimates SocGen.

As is typical, the BEA's advance report on Q2 real GDP growth will incorporate annual revisions to the national income and product accounts. With few exceptions component series will be revised from 2012 forward, adds SocGen. Of the technical changes announced, the most interesting may be improvements to the seasonal adjustment of underlying component series. Many have noted that real GDP has tended to growth at a slower pace during the winter than the other three quarters of the year. An ongoing debate amongst economists has been whether this phenomenon has been attributable to factors such as unusually harsh weather or "residual" seasonality in the BEA's estimates.