US consumer price index likely to have risen in June on increase in gasoline prices

The consumer price index in the US is expected to have risen in June, driven by gasoline prices. According to a Societe Generale research report, the CPI is likely to have increased 0.23 percent, mirroring the May rise.

Meanwhile, the core inflation rate might have risen to 0.18 percent in the month. Prices of gasoline are expected to have increased around 3.5 percent unadjusted. However, after seasonal adjustment, the rise is expected to be around 2.4 percent, said Societe Generale.

In all, the energy index is likely to have risen 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. The food measure is expected to have climbed 0.1 percent. However, there are certain risks on the downside to the estimate given the persistent weakness in prices of food so far in 2016. In the mean time, the core CPI is likely to have recorded another strong increase.

Shelter costs are expected to have stayed strong in June, with both rent and owners’ equivalent rent anticipated to have gained 0.3 percent for the third consecutive month. Cost of education is likely to have gained 0.4 percent, whereas medical care costs might have eased a bit to 0.2 percent after recording continuous rises of 0.3 percent, noted Societe Generale.

Meanwhile, air costs are likely to have climbed about 3 percent, whereas used cars are expected to have recorded another fall surpassing 1 percent.