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The U.S. Treasuries slumped Friday ahead of the country’s consumer price-led inflation index for the month of December and retail sales for the same period, scheduled to be released today by 13:30GMT. Also, FOMC member Rosengren is scheduled to make a keynote speech later in the day which will provide further direction in the debt market.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasuries jumped nearly 2 basis points to 2.54 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields rose 1 basis point to 2.87 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year traded 1-1/2 basis points higher at 1.98 percent by 11:20GMT.
Today’s most notable data will come from the US, where December CPI and retail sales figures are due. Headline CPI might be weighed by gasoline prices, and so we expect a rise of just 0.1 percent m/m. However, core CPI is expected to be a touch firmer, up 0.2 percent m/m. Those figures would see the annual pace of CPI inflation inch slightly lower having risen to 2.2 percent y/y in November while the annual core rate would remain at 1.7 percent y/y.
Although the festive shopping period appears to have been relatively positive, the strength might have been disproportionately concentrated in November, and so we expect to see retail sales growth slow to 0.3 percent y/y and 0.2 percent m/m ex-autos and gasoline from 0.8 percent m/m on both measures the previous month.
Looking at today’s calendar, we will receive US initial jobless claims and US PPI data while the ECB will release its account of the December Governing Council meeting. Also, New York Fed President Bill Dudley will speak publicly on the economic outlook. And the Treasury will sell 30Y bonds.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Futures traded 0.23 percent higher at 2,775.75 by 11:25GMT, while at 11:00GMT, the FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index remained slightly bearish at -82.04 (a reading above +75 indicates a bullish trend, while that below -75 a bearish trend). For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
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