U.S. Treasuries gain after Fed leaves interest rates unchanged; eyes on initial jobless claims

The U.S. Treasuries gained Thursday, taking cues from the Federal Reserve’s overnight decision, where the Fed Funds rate remained unchanged, with expectations of a slightly higher inflationary pressure. In addition, they dropped the statement indicating that they are "monitoring inflation developments closely", hinting to an easing of concerns about inflation being too low and perhaps also suggesting that they do not expect inflation to accelerate significantly. 

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasuries slipped 1 basis point to 2.95 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields also fell 1 basis point to 3.12 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year traded 1-1/2 basis points lower at 2.48 percent by 10:45GMT.

US financial markets were only mildly influenced by the FOMC statement. After the initial positive reaction, US equities retreated, with both the S&P500 and DJI eventually closing down 0.7 percent, while the US dollar appreciated to new highs for the year.

It should be a busy day on the data front in the US. The latest trade data for March are expected to show a sharp narrowing in the headline deficit, which should be partly due to the better goods trade balance, as seen in the relevant data released a week ago, while services balance should show an improvement too.

Following a lower-than-expected reading for the manufacturing ISMs earlier this week, tomorrow’s equivalent non-manufacturing survey is also expected to show deterioration. Nevertheless, the headline index should remain at historically high levels. Also, releases of factory orders figures for March and the first estimate of Q1 labor productivity should be no less interesting. 

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Futures rose 0.25 percent to 2,633.75 by 10:45GMT, while at 10:00GMT, the FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index remained neutral at -20.39 (a reading above +75 indicates a bullish trend, while that below -75 a bearish trend). For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex

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