U.K. retail sales balance seems to have fallen significantly in January

The U.K. retail sales balance is expected to have fallen. The CBI Distributive Trades survey would give the initial glimpse of overall retail sales in January. However, it should be carefully interpreted, noted Societe Generale in a research report. The survey, which took place in early January, might miss trends developing later in the month. This could be significant in a volatile sales period such as seen now.

The balance of reported sales jumped to 35 from 26 in December, giving a totally misleading signal for sales that month that dropped from 6.4 percent to 4.9 percent year-on-year. Therefore, a considerable decline in balance is likely in January to bring it back more into line with the true trend, added Societe Generale.