UK inflation to turn negative again

UK CPI inflation has oscillated between +0.1% and -0.1% yoy since February and should return to the bottom of that range in September. Energy prices should be a downward influence on inflation with the 27 August price cut made by British Gas being captured in the September price survey and petrol and diesel prices continuing to fall. 

Moreover, food price deflation should be stable and might even deepen a little. Core inflation should remain at 1.0% yoy. The net result should be that headline CPI inflation falls from 0.0% to -0.1% yoy. RPI inflation should fall from 1.1% to 0.9% yoy.