Yen Near Lows as Markets Await Bank of Japan Rate Decision, Euro Slips After ECB Signals Caution 
Singapore Growth Outlook Brightens for 2025 as Economists Flag AI and Geopolitical Risks 
Oil Prices Climb on Venezuela Blockade, Russia Sanctions Fears, and Supply Risks 
Japan Inflation Holds Firm in November as BOJ Nears Key Rate Hike Decision 
Dollar Holds Firm Ahead of Global Central Bank Decisions as Yen, Sterling and Euro React 
U.S. Stock Futures Edge Higher as Micron Earnings Boost AI Sentiment Ahead of CPI Data 
Canada Signals Delay in US Tariff Deal as Talks Shift to USMCA Review 
New Zealand Business Confidence Hits 30-Year High as Economic Outlook Improves 
Asian Currencies Slip as Dollar Strengthens; Indian Rupee Rebounds on Intervention Hopes 
Austan Goolsbee Signals Potential for More Fed Rate Cuts as Inflation Shows Improvement 
Trump Orders Blockade of Sanctioned Oil Tankers, Raising Venezuela Tensions and Oil Prices 
Gold and Silver Surge as Safe Haven Demand Rises on U.S. Economic Uncertainty 
The UK gilts surged Monday as investors wait to watch the country’s 10-year auction and the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy meeting, scheduled to be held on June 20 and June 21 by 09:45GMT and 11:00GMT respectively.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilts, slumped 1-1/2 basis points to 1.41 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields slid 1 basis point to 1.76 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year too traded nearly 1 basis point lower at 0.71 percent by 10:00GMT.
Brexit is set to continue to dominate attention in the coming week. And political confusion continues to reign, with the government’s compromise proposal on whether Parliament should have a ‘meaningful vote’ on the final withdrawal agreement – and crucially what to do if there is no agreement – rejected by Conservative Party ‘remainer’ rebels. Key votes, in the House of Lords today, but in particular in the House of Commons on Wednesday, could trigger a political crisis.
Meanwhile, in terms of the regular economics news-flow, after a busy week for top-tier releases – which painted a mixed picture of activity in Q2 – the main event be the BoE’s MPC meeting, with the policy decision to be announced on Thursday. Markets (appropriately) see a probability of less than 10% of a rate hike. And our central scenario is for no change until November. However, notwithstanding political risks, the strength of last week’s May retail sales figures (up 1.3%M/M) has likely increased the chances of a hike at the time of August’s Inflation Report.
The statement accompanying this month’s meeting may give some insight into MPC’s latest thinking on the strength and sustainability of the rebound in Q2 growth. On the same day, the May public finance figures should confirm that borrowing continues to improve compared to last FY, although the government's plans to spend an extra GBP20 billion on the health service on top of the imminent hit to the public finances from the impact of Brexit raise additional questions about UK fiscal sustainability.
Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 traded 0.27 percent higher at 7,528.93 by 10:05GMT, while at 10:00GMT, the FxWirePro's Hourly Pound Strength Index remained neutral at 54.87 (a reading above +75 indicates a bullish trend, while that below -75 a bearish trend). For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
