UK: July CPI is the key data release this week

July CPI is the key data release (Tues) in UK, with the secondary focus on retail sales (Thurs). For CPI, a slightly below consensus dip is expected in the headline figure to -0.4%m/m, - 0.1%y/y (cons: -0.3%, 0.0%), with clothing sales a noted pressure. That would be a disappointment not only to consensus expectations, but also relative to BoE forecasts from the Aug. Inflation Report (0.0%y/y). 

"We continue to look for a sharp rise in inflation in Q4. For July retail sales, the market is looking for a decent rebound to +0.4%m/m after the disappointment in June (-0.2%)," says RBC Capital Markets.