The Future of Work May Not Belong to the College-Bound

The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) and robotic technologies has led many analysts to worry about what the future of work will look like. Many predict a mass elimination of low-skill jobs, in what some refer to as a "jobs apocalypse". The solution, many insist, is a wholesale rethinking of how we prepare the next generation of workers for jobs in high-skill, technical positions.

In the US, there's already some evidence of this shift happening in real-time. Already, nine in ten new jobs require a college education, which is only adding to a massive and growing college debt crisis nationwide. At the same time, though, almost half of recent college graduates are underemployed – a trend that's expected to continue throughout their careers.

So what does the future of work really look like? Will there be a massive uptick in high-skill jobs to keep the swelling ranks of college graduates employed? Or are American students simply running up bills they have little hope of earning their way out from under? Here's a look at what the real future of work might be, and why today's college students might be preparing for jobs that will never materialize.

Behind the Curve

Right now, colleges around the country are pouring massive amounts of resources into retooling their offerings to focus on future technologies like AI and machine learning. It's a change that's happening throughout the educational system, with programs beginning at the K-12 level to ready students for the jobs of the future. The problem with that is the fact that technological development moves much faster than educators can hope to cope with. For example, we're already starting to see examples of AI systems that can program themselves, which means that the current generation of students may be learning skills that will be out of date before they've completed their degrees.

Increasing Competition, Decreasing Need

Then, there's the fact that we're already producing more college-educated workers than there are jobs for them to fill. As evidence, consider the fact that a scant 27% of college graduates are currently employed in a job that matches their degree. That's a sign that we're already training a workforce in unnecessary skills (as indicated above), as well as that there's already far too much competition for the jobs that are available. Then, consider the effect that automation and further AI development is going to have on today's jobs. Already, there's evidence that it is high-skill workers, and not their low-skill peers, that are feeling the greatest effects of those technologies. That's a good indicator that college graduates are already feeling the very economic pressure from technology that they'd hoped to avoid through higher education.

Vocational Positions Sit Empty

While a greater share of students now goes on to college than ever before, there are a variety of professions that offer high-paying jobs that can't find suitable candidates. Most are positions in construction and other vocational work, many of which offer higher salaries and better benefits than most college grads will ever find upon finishing school. According to the Department of Education, job openings in those fields are expected to exceed the number of students training to fill them by 68% in the coming years. The openings are in major cities, too, where aging infrastructure is expected to spur spending to unheard-of levels in the near future. Better still, most of the jobs require automation-resistant skills – meaning that they may well be the jobs of the future, much to the chagrin of degree-holders everywhere.

Preparing for the Real Future of Work

Although there's plenty of room for conjecture, it looks like the future of work isn't going to be kind to today's college students. Educational systems in other countries seem to realize this already and are making adjustments accordingly, especially in major cities. Prime examples are the expansion of TAFE courses in Sydney and other Australian cities and the massive success of Finland's vocational training system nationwide. For students in the US, there's a valuable lesson to be had in their example. It's that a single-minded focus on elusive future skills isn't the only path to success.

The good news is that some of this generation of American students seem to be getting the message. Enrollment in vocational training has started to increase for the first time since the 1970s. For them, the future of work is going to look an awful lot like the past, and that's a good thing. For the college-bound, the outlook remains unclear. They still face an uphill climb that seems like it's only going to get steeper, with no relief in sight. All they, and we, can do is wait and see how it all plays out.

This article does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or management of EconoTimes.