Thailand Q4 economic growth likely to stay below 4 pct on concerns over slowdown in investments, says DBS Group Research

Australia’s economic growth for the fourth quarter of this year is expected to stay below 4 percent, following concerns over downside risks to investments ahead of the February 2019 elections and slowdown in manufacturing due to weaker exports, according to the latest report from DBS Group Research.

Thai growth slowed more than expected in Q3, undershooting consensus by a wide margin. Growth eased to 3.3 percent y/y, sharply lower than 4.8 percent in H1 2018. Growth plateaued on m/m terms, down from a revised 0.9 percent in Q2 and 2.0 percent in Q1.

Following the data release, the NESDB trimmed its forecast to 4.2 percent for 2018, more conservative than the Bank of Thailand (BoT) at 4.4 percent and Finance Ministry at 4.5 percent. The NESDB pegged 2019 growth at 3.5-4.5 percent.

At last week’s policy review, the central bank had signalled that a hike was near. Firm domestic sectors (consumption and investment) might still give them the confidence to tighten policy in December or early 2019 (to create buffers for future contingencies), but it will be a close call, the report added.