Spanish growth likely to decelerate further in Q4

Spanish GDP for third quarter of 2015 on yoy and qoq basis are yet to be released today, which is likely to reflect the solid domestic demand and consumption in the country.

On q-o-q basis, the Q3 GDP is expected to be 0.8% by the market consensus, which is 0.2% less than previous quarter's 1% GDP qoq. The year on year basis GDP, as expected by the consensus should be 3.4%, modestly higher than the previous quarter's 3.1%.  

Construction was stronger in Q3 than that of  Q2, but business investment seems to have declined in the third quarter.

"To our mind, Spanish growth has passed its peak and is likely to decelerate further in Q4 and beyond given the expected pick-up in inflation, a moderation in labour market improvement, the need for more deleveraging and the risk of rising political uncertainty", says Societe Generale in a research note.