Catalonia elections: Pro-independence wins absolute majority in seats, but not in votes

The pro-independence platform (Junts pel si), together with the Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP), which also supports independence, have won 47.7% of the vote and an absolute majority of seats in the 135-seat regional parliament of Catalonia. Participation was very high by historical standards at over 75%. Overall, it was a stronger result for the pro-independence parties than the latest polls had signalled (c.44-45% of the vote in favour of pro-independence parties).The pro-independence parties are expected to form a coalition government.

"Although the likelihood of independence has increased, we still do not see independence as the most likely outcome mainly because: 1) the costs of independence for Catalonia are very high, including exit from the EU; and 2) we expect Catalonia to win some concessions from the central government after the Spanish general election on 20 December 2015", notes Barclays.

The lack of an absolute majority of votes in favour of independence is important because the more moderate members within the pro-independence platform (including former regional PM Mas) are unlikely to support a unilateral declaration of independence without over 50% of the popular vote.