Significantly lower EU rapeseed crop expected

The current EU rapeseed crop forecasts issued by the US Department of Agriculture, the analyst firm Oil World and the European Commission range between 21.4 million and 21.7 million tons. A record 24.3 million tons were harvested in the EU in 2014. 

Germany accounts for a major part of the anticipated fall in production, for one thing, the acreage was reduced by a good 6% according to the German Farmers' Cooperative (DRV) and for another thing significantly lower per-acre yields are expected. As well as the prolonged dry spell, a role in this is also played by the ban on an important group of insecticides. 

Overall, the crop looks set to be 21% lower according to the DRV, totalling just 4.9 million tons. Oil World's estimate is only marginally higher. Hot and dry weather is also taking its toll in France, where production is likewise expected to be around the 5 million ton mark. The DRV estimates the German wheat crop, harvesting of which has now begun, at 25.4 million tons, which is 8.5% down on last year, the 3% increase in acreage being more than offset by considerably lower yields. 

Wheat has suffered again from the high temperatures of recent weeks, and unlike corn will no longer profit from any rainfall that may come in the next few weeks. Lower yields have prompted the DRV to envisage 10% lower German corn production. EU-wide, the European Commission expects corn production to be down 12%.