RUB likely to depreciate against USD towards 68 by 2018-end, says Commerzbank

Outflow of capital from Russia has decreased markedly in the recent times. The outflow in 2015 had reached just USD 58 billion, which is just one third of the level recorded in the prior year. In the initial nine months of 2016, that is the January to September period, the outflows remained at USD 10 billion, which is around the surplus in the current account.

Against the background of a rebounding economy, but still above average inflation, a mild depreciation of the Russian ruble is likely against the USD towards 68 at the end of 2018, according to a Commerzbank research report. A likely end of the sanctions and the increasing oil prices might constitute scenarios that might create potential for a rebound, stated Commerzbank.