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RBA leaves policy rate on hold, likely to maintain neutral stance through H1 2017

The Reserve Bank of Australia left its key policy rate unchanged for the fourth month in a row at the monetary policy meeting held Tuesday, following persistently low rates of inflation, which is likely to lead to further neutral policy meets through the first half of 2017.

As widely expected, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 percent. There were a number of changes to the statement, the main ones being around the global inflation outlook, the temporary nature of the weakness in domestic activity, and the acknowledgment of overall strength in housing.

The RBA implicitly acknowledged the weakness in Q3 activity, although it implied that the weakness will be temporary, noting that 'some slowing in the year-ended growth rate is likely before it picks up again'. This is consistent with our view that Q3 GDP will be weak (-0.1 percent q/q), but that the weakness is likely to be short-lived.

"We continue to think that rates are on hold, but with inflation likely to remain low for some time, we expect the Bank retains an easing bias. The likelihood of the Bank acting on that bias seems relatively low," said Felicity Emmett of ANZ Research in their latest research report.

Tomorrow’s wage data in the GDP report will be important, as will labor and housing market data over the next few months.

Meanwhile, the AUD/USD is trading bearish at 0.74, down 0.25 percent, while at 5:00GMT, the FxWirePro's Hourly AUD Strength Index remained neutral at -20.89 (a reading above +75 indicates a bullish trend, while that below -75 a bearish trend). For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex

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