Poland's retail sales growth stabilisation

Poland's retail sales growth is expected to remain unchanged on a year-on-year basis in September following a -0.3% drop in August. In monthly terms, the level is likely to have decreased by - 0.6%. Retail sales were mainly driven by food, car sales and specialised store sales. Meanwhile, fuel sales will probably have remained negative on the back of lower prices. 

In real terms, retail sales growth in September should amount to 2.0% yoy. Recent SAMAR data on car registrations is positive as growth remained stable at 16.0% yoy in September, compared to 16.2% in August. Over the coming months, consumer spending should be supported by both a lack of inflationary pressure and real disposable income growth.