Poland's growth likely moderating

Poland's industrial and retail sales data from September portray a gradually moderating growth cycle, in line with recent signals from the PMI. Calendar-adjusted industrial output growth was promising, rising 1.5% mom, but this only made up for the 1.3% mom decline of August. 

Sharp fluctuation in the output of the car industry was responsible for the decline in August and the subsequent make-up in September; beyond this, there was not a lot of new information from the data. 

Retail sales growth was stable 2.9% yoy during September, the trend here is clearly decelerating with recent readings reversing the punchy acceleration seen during H1. 

"The data are not a cause for concern yet, but are generally consistent with the view that slowing growth and softer-than-expected inflation will trigger further rate cuts during H1 2016", says Commerzbank.