Poland’s employment growth likely stabilized in September, gross wages expected to have decelerated

Poland’s employment growth is expected to have remained stable in September. According to a Societe Generale research note, the nation’s employment in corporate sector is likely to have grown 3 percent year-on-year in September, a bit lower from August figure. In sequential terms, the growth i s expected to have come in around zero percent.

The number of employees is anticipated to have risen a bit on sequential basis by about 1000, whereas it is expected to have increase by almost 168,000 in year-on-year terms. The rise in employment growth is supportive of the wage bill.

“We will probably see slightly lower growth in employment (below 3.0 percent yoy) over the next few months due to a higher statistical base in 4Q16”, said Societe Generale.

Meanwhile, average gross wages are likely to have grown 4.2 percent annually in September, as compared with 4.7 percent rise recorded in August. In sequential terms, the rise is expected to have come in at 0.4 percent. Real wages growth continues to be underpinned by deflation and is anticipated to have risen by 4.8 percent year-on-year. Real wage bill is expected to have grown 7.9 percent year-on-year, supportive of retail sales growth, added Societe Generale. In the months ahead, wages growth is likely to stabilize above 4 percent year-on-year.