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Fitch Ratings expects Poland’s economic growth to accelerate to 3.0 percent in 2017 and 3.2 percent in 2018. Domestic demand will benefit from a gradual recovery in investment, driven by accelerating disbursements of EU funds.
Consumption will remain the main driver of growth with continued strong labour market, rising wages and the ramp-up in Family 500+ transfers to 1.2 percent of GDP in 2017. Monthly data available for January 2017 suggest strong consumption (+9.6 percent y/y for retail sales in volume) and strengthening investment (+2.1 percent y/y for construction) at the start of 2017.
Poland’s GDP slowed to 2.8 percent in 2016 from 3.9 percent in 2015, primarily reflecting a sharp fall in investment (−7.7 percent y/y in 3Q16) linked to the EU funding cycle (2016 was the first year when only funding from the new programming period was available).
Household consumption was the main driver of growth in 2016, supported by a strong labour market (the unemployment rate was 5.9 percent in December 2016, down from 6.9 percent a year ago) and the Family 500+ transfers, which added 0.9 percent of GDP to household income.
Further, inflation is expected to accelerate gradually and to reach 1.6 percent y/y at end-2017 and 2.3 percent at end-2018, from 1.0 percent in December 2016. The key drivers of price growth are rising commodity prices, the closing output gap and a tightening labour market.
Meanwhile, Fitch expects the central bank to keep its rate stable in 2017, at 1.5 percent for the main policy rate, as inflation remains well below the 2.5 percent target, and increase it gradually from 2018, in line with the expected acceleration in inflation.
