Plausible optimistic scenario in Italy

The Italian government's 2016 budget will try not to impair the nascent economic recovery. Thus, the public deficit would only be marginally brought down in 2016 (to 2.2% of GDP from the 2.6% expected in 2015) as a result of the various exemptions mentioned above, says Societe Generale.

To achieve this, the government is counting on continued economic improvement (real GDP growth of 0.9% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016), which we regard as plausible but optimistic.

"As we remain more cautious than the government on the pace of increase in economic activity, it will come as no surprise that we are also more cautious on the deficit (2.7% this year and 2.3% in 2016)", added Societe Generale.