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PBoC's one more RRR cut likely this month

China's CPI inflation in November increased marginally and stood at 1.5% y/y against 1.3% in October. The PPI deflation, in contrast, remained steady in the negative territory with a growth rate of -5.9% year on year for fourth month.

Analysts foresee the inflation outlook of the economy to remain weak till next year. Therefore, the PBoC is expected to be more aggresive in near future. The Bank is likely to easy monetary policy in order to boost the domsetic consumption.

"We expect one more RRR cut in this month due to the still-sizable capital outflows. In addition, if real activity data continue to disappoint this month, we see the risk of another 25bp benchmark rate cut before year-end. Looking into 2016, we maintain our forecast of two benchmark rate cuts of 25bp in H1 given continued economic headwinds with growth slowing to 6%. We also look for two more RRR cuts of 50bp each in H1 2016 to support liquidity and lending", argues Barclays.

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