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Oil in Global Economy Series: Oil under selling pressure as rig counts rise

After the inventory report released last week unexpectedly signaled a draw down, the oil price moved higher only to suffer a setback from the Baker Hughes report released at the end of last week, which showed that the number of active oil rigs increased for a ninth consecutive week. After declining to just 316 in May last year, the numbers of operating rigs have doubled since then. As of last week’s report, the numbers of rigs operating in the United States have reached 631, the highest since September 2015. However, it is still down more than 60 percent from its peak in 2014. The oil production has reached 9.11 million barrels per day as of last week’s report, the highest level since early 2016. As the shale companies became better equipped to compete at a much lower price via cost cuttings, the production of oil in the United States have increased by 681,000 barrels per day since last summer.

Nevertheless, the backwardation in the oil market, which is currently at 51 cents per barrel, is suggesting the effectiveness of the OPEC deal in reducing supplies from the market. WTI is currently trading at $48 per barrel and we don’t expect the price to dip below $42 per barrel as the demand remains resilient.

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July 21 14:30 UTC Released

USECRI Weekly Annualized*

Actual

144.8 %

Forecast

Previous

2.4 %

July 21 14:30 UTC Released

USECRI Weekly Index*

Actual

2.6 %

Forecast

Previous

143.9 %

July 24 00:30 UTC 834834m

JPForeign Direct Investm't*

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Forecast

Previous

52.4 bln $

July 24 07:00 UTC 12241224m

FRMarkit Serv Flash PMI

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Forecast

56.7 %

Previous

56.9 %

July 24 07:00 UTC 12241224m

FRMarkit Mfg Flash PMI

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54.6 %

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54.8 %

July 24 07:00 UTC 12241224m

FRMarkit Comp Flash PMI

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Forecast

56.4 %

Previous

56.6 %

July 24 07:30 UTC 12541254m

DEMarkit Service Flash PMI

Actual

Forecast

54.3

Previous

54.0

July 24 07:30 UTC 12541254m

DEMarkit Mfg Flash PMI

Actual

Forecast

59.2

Previous

59.6

July 24 07:30 UTC 12541254m

DEMarkit Comp Flash PMI

Actual

Forecast

56.3

Previous

56.4

July 24 08:00 UTC 12841284m

RUMarkit Mfg Flash PMI

Actual

Forecast

57.2 %

Previous

57.4 %

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