Oil Prices Steady as OPEC+ Pauses Production Hikes Amid Uncertain Demand

Oil prices held steady in Asian trading on Tuesday as investors weighed the impact of OPEC+’s latest production decision. Brent crude futures for January slipped 0.2% to $64.77 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 0.2% to $60.95 per barrel at 01:46 GMT. The slight decline followed a volatile start to the week as markets balanced concerns of oversupply against risks of tighter flows from Russia due to U.S. sanctions.

OPEC+ announced on Monday a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for December, marking the final phase of its gradual rollback of earlier supply cuts. However, the group stated it would pause further output hikes through the first quarter of 2026, citing “uncertain demand trends” and “seasonal softness.” Analysts at ING noted that the market is expected to experience a peak surplus in early 2026, making the decision to pause production hikes “a logical step.” They added that any disruption to Russian exports caused by sanctions could offset the expected surplus, potentially prompting OPEC+ to revisit its production strategy early next year.

On the demand side, weaker U.S. economic data reinforced concerns about slowing fuel consumption. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the U.S. manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.7 in October—its eighth consecutive month in contraction territory—indicating persistent weakness in industrial activity. Traders are now awaiting the latest crude inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) for further insight into short-term market direction.

Overall, the oil market remains caught between conflicting signals—rising supply capacity and softening demand—keeping prices in a narrow range as investors assess how geopolitical and economic developments will shape global energy trends.