Oil Prices Rebound from 16-Week Lows on Russian Sanctions Prospects

Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, breaking a three-day losing streak and rebounding from 16-week lows, as investors weighed the possibility of tighter sanctions on Russian crude. However, optimism was capped by expectations of increased supply from an OPEC+ output boost starting next month.

Brent crude futures rose 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $65.50 a barrel by 0116 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 14 cents, or 0.2%, to $61.92 a barrel. Both benchmarks had dropped about 1% on Wednesday, with Brent closing at its lowest level since June 5 and WTI since May 30.

Analysts noted that buying interest resurfaced as WTI approached the $60 support level. Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, said geopolitical tensions and speculation over stricter restrictions on Russian oil flows provided some support.

The Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers announced plans to intensify pressure on Russia by targeting buyers of Russian crude and entities aiding in sanctions evasion. Adding to this, the U.S. is set to provide Ukraine with intelligence to aid long-range missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, potentially disrupting refineries and pipelines critical to Moscow’s oil revenues, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Despite these bullish factors, broader concerns weighed on markets. Fears of a U.S. government shutdown raised worries over global economic growth. Meanwhile, OPEC+ may agree to boost oil production by up to 500,000 barrels per day in November, triple the increase set for October, as Saudi Arabia seeks to recapture market share. This comes at a time when both U.S. and Asian demand show signs of slowing.

On the supply front, U.S. crude inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels last week to 416.5 million, above market expectations of a 1 million-barrel rise, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles also grew as refining activity weakened, signaling softer demand.

The oil market remains caught between geopolitical risks that could tighten supply and the reality of growing inventories and potential OPEC+ output increases that may pressure prices further.