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Norwegian economy likely to have expanded 0.7 pct in Q2, oil investments to have dropped

The Norwegian economic growth data for the second quarter is set to be released this week. According to a DNB research report, the mainland GDP is expected to grow 0.7 percent in the second quarter, 0.1 percentage point higher than the earlier quarter and 0.1 percentage point above consensus’ and Norges Bank’s expectations. The projection is based on solid figures for consumption of goods in the second quarter.

However, oil investments are expected to have dropped back in the second quarter, following a solid first quarter. Mainland investment probably grew further in the second quarter. If the forecast is realised, it would be positive for the NOK and Norwegian rates.

Meanwhile, the second estimate from the oil and gas investments survey is expected to be upwardly revised from NOK 144 billion to NOK 152 billion. The biggest revisions to the development of new fields are expected because of 6 new plans for developments being approved in the first half of 2017.

“We expect the 2017-estimate roughly unchanged at 155bn NOK. In the MPR2/17 Norges Bank forecasted the petroleum investment to NOK 154bn in 2017 and NOK 155bn in 2018”, added DBS Bank.

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