National Bank of Poland unlikely to hike rates in 2018 or 2019 - Commerzbank

Polish consumer price inflation for the month of February had surprised sharply to the downside. The headline inflation came in at 1.4 percent year-on-year, a deceleration from January’s 1.9 percent. Seasonally adjusted prices remained flat in February.

The consumer price inflation has dropped below the central bank’s lower tolerance threshold of 1.5 percent. Polish inflation had accelerated briefly to target in the fourth quarter of last year; however, it already seems exhausted.

Commerzbank, in a research report, noted that the average inflation is expected to come in at 1.6 percent this year, whereas it is expected to come in at 1.9 percent next year. Based on this profile, the National Bank of Poland is unlikely to hike rates in 2018 or 2019, stated Commerzbank.

Indeed, National Bank of Poland governor Adam Glapinski has recently signaled at such an outlook as well. An easy monetary stance is expected to lead to EUR/PLN rising gradually to about 4.35 by the end of 2019, added Commerzbank.

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