NZ consumer confidence gains in Sep on upbeat house price expectations; RBNZ to hold fire

Consumer confidence in New Zealand gained during the month of September, following upbeat housing price expectations. Also, the week witnessed strong economic data for the country, which is likely to administer for a steady monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index rose to 121 this month from 117.7 in August. A net 31 percent of respondents expect to be better off financially in a year's time compared to 25 percent a month earlier.

Consumers were also more optimistic in their 12-month outlook for the wider economy, with a net 12 percent expecting good times ahead, up from 5 percent in August, while over a five-year horizon a net 14 percent see more good times, compared to 10 percent. The current conditions index dropped 0.2 points to 124.1 while the future conditions index increased 5.6 points to 119.

In relation to the above, the survey of 1,000 people showed people expect house prices to rise an annual 6.3 percent in the next two years, a new high. Auckland house price expectations, which dropped to 5.5 percent in August from 8.4 percent a month earlier, recovered in September, rising to 7.1 percent. House price expectations in Canterbury also rose, up to 6 percent from 3.7 percent a month earlier.

"The economy continues to bear fruit so it’s of little surprise to see consumer confidence growing," said Cameron Bagrie, Chief Economist, ANZ.

Moreover, the country’s annual gross domestic product growth has accelerated to 3.6 percent while earlier data showed the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.1 percent, data released by Statistics New Zealand showed Thursday.

Meanwhile, the RBNZ is expected to hold the official cash rate at 2% at next Thursday's review. But with developments more or less balanced since the last review, it is likely that the RBNZ will continue to signal a rate cut in November.