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NFP report preview

Today January NFP report is to be published at 13:30 GMT from the US.

What is NFP report?

  • NFP or non-farm payroll report is the monthly statistics on labor condition in the US released by US department of labor statistics. The report comprises goods, construction, and manufacturing sector companies.
  • This report influences the financial markets deeply across asset class.

Key highlights –

  • The headline number for total hires last month was 148,000. January ADP employment number was encouraging at 234,000 after November’s highly encouraging 245,000.
  • Today payrolls are expected at 180,000.
  • The second most vital component is wage growth which as of now is showing healthy growth of 2.5 percent. Today expected at 2.6 percent y/y.
  • The labor force participation rate is showing no signs of rebound. It was at 62.7 percent, in the last report.
  • The unemployment rate is expected to remain same at 4.1 percent.
  • The underemployment rate is expected to improve further from current 8.1 percent.
  • Average weekly hours were previous 34.5; No major change is expected.

Impact –

  • The immediate impact is usually very volatile and likely to affect the majority of the asset classes.
  • A strong report especially the headline number (above 225,000) and wage growth could lead to a recovery in the dollar which has been struggling recently.
  • Dollar selloffs could accelerate on a materially weak report of headline below 150,000. The dollar index is currently trading at 88.7, up 0.22 percent so far today.

 

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