U.S. Stock Index Futures Steady After S&P 500 Hits Record on Strong Economic Data 
Trump Defends Economic Record in North Carolina as Midterm Election Pressure Mounts 
Oil Prices Climb in Asian Trade as Venezuela Sanctions and Middle East Tensions Fuel Risk Premium 
Yen Slides as BOJ Caution Undercuts Rate Hike Impact 
Why U.S. Coffee Prices Are Staying High Despite Trump’s Tariff Rollbacks 
South Korea Central Bank Warns of Rising Financial Stability Risks Amid Won Volatility 
Japan Signals Possible Yen Intervention as Currency Weakens Despite BOJ Rate Hike 
UK Economy Grows 0.1% in Q3 2025 as Outlook Remains Fragile 
German Exports to the U.S. Decline Sharply as Tariffs Reshape Trade in 2025 
Wall Street Ends Higher as S&P 500, Nasdaq Extend Gains Ahead of Holiday Week 
Gold Prices Surge to Record Highs as Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Safe-Haven Demand 
Asian Stocks Rise as Wall Street Tech Rally Lifts Markets, Yen Slumps Despite BOJ Rate Hike 
Platinum Price Surges Past $2,000 as Demand and Supply Dynamics Tighten 
Global Demand for Yuan Loans and Bonds Surges as China Pushes Currency Internationalization 
U.S. Dollar Slips as Yen Finds Support on Intervention Signals and Geopolitical Risks Rise 
Market Impact of Trump's Rising Odds
The increasing betting odds of a Donald Trump victory have resulted in gains for US equities, yields, and the dollar. Conversely, Europe-focused and tariff-sensitive market segments have struggled to keep pace.
Despite these market movements, polls reveal a tightly contested race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Analysts expect a divided Congress, with Republicans likely to retain the Senate and Democrats favored to reclaim the House. According to Barclays strategists, a divided government appears to be the most probable outcome, countering the "Redsweep" scenario the markets are currently pricing in.
Upcoming Election Risks
“Given the event risk and the close nature of the race, market jitters are expected leading up to the vote,” Barclays stated. Historically, global equity markets experience a rally post-election, driven primarily by sectors like Cyclicals and Value.
The impending vote may act as a catalyst for heightened risk-taking and capital rotation, especially into European equities as we approach 2025. However, any delay in announcing a winner could induce volatility in the markets.
Outcomes of the Election
Betting markets currently favor a Republican sweep, which may bolster US equities through potential tax cuts, while negatively impacting bonds due to inflation concerns. A split Congress under Harris might ease tariff risks and stabilize the market, a scenario Barclays views as favorable for European equities.
In contrast, if Trump wins but faces a divided Congress, stricter tariff and immigration policies could harm US equities and pose significant challenges for European markets.
Conclusion
In summary, the upcoming elections could significantly impact market dynamics. A Trump victory may bring volatility and opportunities, while a Harris win could stabilize tariffs and benefit European equities.
