March may show Japan's first monthly trade surplus in 33 months

Japan will release March trade data on 22 April. March is expected to mark Japan's first monthly trade surplus of JPY128.2bn since June 2012. 

However, the gains will likely have been due to a slowdown in imports. Imports are expected to have contracted 12% y/y in March partly due to the base effect. 

Declining import prices likely also played an important role, as energy import prices in JPY terms declined 30% y/y in March. Export growth is likely to have accelerated to 10% y/y after slowing to 2.4% y/y in February.

"We estimate Q1 average export growth of 9.8% y/y, slightly better than 9.1% y/y in Q4-2014.", says Standard Chartered.