Manufacturing PMIs for CEE nations trend weaker in November

The PMI index for CEE nations trended slightly weaker in November. The figures published on Thursday continued to stay stable but not particularly upbeat compared with tendencies of these PMIs in the first half of 2016, and especially compared with the positive PMI readings around the euro area, noted Commerzbank in a research report.

The manufacturing PMI for Poland rebounded to 51.9 in November from 50.2 in the prior month; however, this is not to be over-interpreted as the reading just takes the indicator back to the level seen in September. Meanwhile, Hungary’s manufacturing PMI came in at 56.6 in November, a slight fall from 57 in October. However, this is a highly unreliable PMI and both the months’ readings are unrepresentative of economic conditions, said Commerzbank.

On the other hand, Turkey’s PMI readings dropped to 48.8 in November. This is not surprising given the local political and lira developments. Significantly, the preferred regional proxy, the Czech PMI, dropped 53.3 to 52.2 in November. This moves shows what is happening in most of the CEE nations in the recent months – loss of manufacturing momentum; however, not a complete crash. The loss of momentum is also affirmed by the weak export data for the CEE region. This is interesting as it occurs against a background of solid German Ifo and orders.