Italian industrial production weakened in September

The Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) is expected to report negative growth in industrial activity, nationwide for September of -0.5% mom, in keeping with the decline in the Markit factory PMI in September (from 56.0 to 53.8, i.e. still a relatively high level). This decline was probably attributable to the extreme weakness in Italian exports recorded during the reference period (from +6.3% yoy in July to only 1% yoy in August). Industrial production is arguably one of the best metrics for tracking GDP growth. 

"Our projection (with factory activity marking a pause) would be consistent with GDP increasing by 0.3% qoq during the third quarter of 2015, matching our last-published projection and unchanged from the Q2 reading", says Societe Generale.