Citi Forecasts a Volatile but Ongoing Bull Market for S&P 500 in 2026 
China Imposes 55% Tariff on Beef Imports Above Quota to Protect Domestic Industry 
Asian Markets Slip as Precious Metals Cool, Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Sentiment 
Japanese Business Leaders Urge Government Action as Weak Yen Strains Economy 
Federal Reserve Begins Treasury Bill Purchases to Stabilize Reserves and Money Markets 
U.S. Stock Index Futures Steady as Markets Await Fed Policy Clues in Holiday-Thinned Trade 
Asia Manufacturing PMI Rebounds as Exports and Tech Demand Drive Growth into 2026 
Oil Prices Slip Slightly as Markets Weigh Geopolitical Risks and Supply Glut Concerns 
Gold Prices Rebound in Europe as Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Outlook Support Bullion 
Singapore GDP Growth Surges in 2025 but Outlook Remains Cautious Amid Global Trade Risks 
South Korea Inflation Rises to 2.3% in December, Matching Market Expectations 
Wall Street Ends Mixed as Tech and Financial Stocks Weigh on Markets Amid Thin Holiday Trading 
Forex Markets Hold Steady as Traders Await Fed Minutes Amid Thin Year-End Volumes 
South Korean Won Slides Despite Government Efforts to Stabilize Currency Markets 
Trump Delays Tariff Increases on Furniture and Cabinets for One More Year 
South Korea Exports Hit Record High as Global Trade Momentum Builds 
U.S. Stock Futures Slip as Year-End Trading Turns Cautious 
India’s Central Bank Interest Rate Cut Anticipated
India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), is poised to cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% in December, according to a recent Reuters poll of economists. This decision aims to address the slowing economic growth amid fluctuating inflation rates.
Current Economic Context
In September, inflation unexpectedly rose to 5.49%, but it is forecasted to average 4.9% this quarter, potentially dropping to 4.6% by early 2024. This decline in inflation offers the RBI room to ease its monetary policy, especially since the bank has maintained interest rates at their highest level since early 2019 over the past ten meetings.
Majority Opinion on Rate Cut
In an Oct. 21-29 Reuters poll of 57 economists, 30 anticipate the RBI will lower the repo rate at its meeting from December 4-6. The remaining 27 economists predict no change. Miguel Chanco from Pantheon suggests that manageable inflation will support this decision, noting that upcoming GDP reports could influence the committee’s outlook.
Future Projections and Considerations
While India is projected to remain the fastest-growing major economy, growth is expected to taper to 6.9% this fiscal year and 6.7% next year, down from 8.2% in 2023/24. Analysts indicate that, despite the growth rate, inflation is likely to remain above the RBI's 4% target until early 2026, limiting the scope for further rate cuts.
Conclusion
Overall, while the likelihood of a December rate cut is increasing, experts believe the RBI will proceed cautiously, waiting for clearer signs that inflation dynamics are stable.
