FOMC member Jeffrey Lacker is expected to dissent again this week and advocate a rate hike. The key phrases to watch are, first, the description of 'global economic and financial developments', which in September were described as something that might restrain economic activity.
Given the recent improvement in these, including the risk rally following the ECB's preannouncement of further easing at the December meeting, this phrase is likely to be changed in a more positive direction.
Second, is that 'some further improvement in the labour market' and 'reasonable confidence that inflation will move back towards 2% over the medium term' still what is needed for the Fed to increase rates? We think so but any changes to this sentence will be crucial for the market's interpretation of the statement.
"How the Fed chooses to describe the latest economic developments, in particular the labour market will also be important. Given the recent slowdown in job growth and continued lack of rising wage inflation, the wording on the labour market in the first paragraph of the statement is likely to be somewhat more downbeat than in September", says Danske Bank.
On the other hand, the overall description of economic activity is likely to stay unchanged i.e. expanding at a moderate pace.


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