High risks of Greece missing the mid-August deadline

According to the EU Commission, Greece's funding needs for August amount to €5bn, of which €3.2bn relate to the ECB debt repayment due on 20 August. In order to have the funds available before the ECB debt is due, the institutions and the Greek government wanted to finalise the ESM programme by mid-August. 

"However, the chances are high that this deadline will be missed. As a result another bridge loan could be needed, which would most likely require the Greek Parliament to adopt another set of reforms", says Societe Generale.

The negotiations have got off to a very slow start. Once the ESM programme has been finalised, the various member states will all need to approve the MoU and the loan agreement.

In some cases the national parliaments will be required to give their approval, either via a budgetary committee (e.g. in the case of France) or through a plenary session, most likely in the case of Finland, Austria, Germany and the Netherlands. 

The decision to use the former or the latter is, for a few countries, discretionary. But only once all the national governments (or parliaments where required) have given their approval, can the ESM Board approve them and agree to disburse the first tranche of the loan.