Greece toward a pro-programme coalition?

The snap general elections will be the third national ballot in 2015 in Greece, after the referendum and the general elections in January. The outcome appears as uncertain as ever. The latest polls show that Syriza's support has fallen dramatically to around 25% vs. 36.3% in the January vote, now neck-and-neck with New Democracy.

The fragmentation of the votes suggests that neither Syriza nor New Democracy will be able to form a government by themselves and that at least three parties will be needed. The process of coalition-building (finding common ground and a suitable PM) is set to be painful and one cannot rule out an inconclusive election result, similar to what happened in 2012 when two elections took place in two months. 

"Regardless of the outcome, the first review is likely to be postponed from October, potentially to the end of the year. On a more positive note, only the extreme parties (Golden Dawn, Popular Unity, KKE), which in total do not exceed 15% of votes, are distancing themselves from the policies agreed in theAugust Memorandum of Understanding and thus are contemplating Grexit", says Societe Generale. 

The support for the bailout programme seems to be widespread across the political spectrum. As a result, a grand coalition cannot be ruled out - but would most likely not be stable.