Gold Stalls Below $4150 as Hot CPI Fuels Dollar Strength and Safe-Haven Bid Fades

Gold trades below $4150 after upbeat US CPI data. Demand for safe-haven assets decreases. After hitting an intraday low of $4130, it’s currently hovering near $4154.

Driven mainly by the Iran war oil shock, which sent energy prices up 17.9% year-over-year and gasoline costs up 5.4% for the month, US consumer inflation shot to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, the highest level in three years and the first time above 4% since 2023. Core CPI rose to 2.9%, which is still much higher than the Fed's 2% target. This shows that a long pause is likely. Markets price a 98% chance that rates will stay the same in June and push the first cut to 2027 as real wages decreased by 0.7%. The data points to a period of dollar strength, high Treasury yields, and selective risk-asset pressure—crypto and tech equities suffer from persistently high rates while energy and inflation hedges clearly benefit from a geopolitical cost-of-living crisis with little sign of ending.

 Major support-$4400/$4350/$4000. Major bearishness below $4000. Any violation below targets $3605/$3000/$2800. 

 It is good to sell on rallies around $4168-70 with SL around $4225 for a TP of $4000/$3600.